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碳排放逐步升高是以工业化为特征的区域经济崛起的必然结果。论文的理论研究说明,产业关联水平反映了区域发展过程中产业多样化和分工细化的程度,相较于产业结构,产业关联水平对区域经济发展水平的指示意义更深刻。那么,产业关联水平对碳排放的影响特征及其趋势将更接近于碳排放在经济发展驱动下的演进规律。因此,论文采用欧盟27国投入产出数据,在测算不同类型制造业和服务业的产业关联水平的基础上,确定不同类型制造业所对应的特征服务业类型,进而应用经济计量学工具对制造业与服务业产业关联度对碳排放的影响进行实证分析,结果显示:第一,作为发达经济体,欧盟的制造业与服务业整体间产业关联度对碳排放具有显著负效应;第二,低端、中端和高端制造业与各自对应特征服务业类型间产业关联度对碳排放的影响均较为显著,其强度呈现随制造业水平升级而先上升、后下降的趋势;第三,高端制造业与生产性、分配性服务业间产业关联度的提高是实现区域碳排放达到峰值并逐步下降的重要动力,而中端制造业与其对应特征服务业关联度提升对碳排放的正向效应将高于低端制造业主导时期。因此,结合发达经济体的发展经验可以发现,碳排放的演化具有规律性特征,而以产业关联度入手的分析能够提供操作性更强的参考。目前,中国应在推动产业结构升级结构的过程中,大力提升生产性服务业的发展水平及其与制造业的关联水平,并采取积极措施降低交通运输业等分配性服务业的能耗强度。
The gradual increase in carbon emissions is the inevitable result of the rise of regional economy characterized by industrialization. The theoretical research shows that the level of industrial relations reflects the degree of industrial diversification and division of labor in the process of regional development. Compared with the industrial structure, the level of industrial association has a deeper meaning to the level of regional economic development. Then, the characteristics and trends of the impact of industry-related levels on carbon emissions will be closer to the evolution of carbon emissions driven by economic development. Therefore, based on the input-output data of 27 EU countries, this paper determines the types of service industries with different types of manufacturing based on the measurement of the industrial relations among different types of manufacturing and service industries, and then uses the econometrics tools to manufacture The empirical analysis shows that: (1) As a developed economy, the EU’s manufacturing and service industry as a whole has a significant negative effect on carbon emissions; (2) The influence of industrial relevance between low-end, middle-end and high-end manufacturing industries and their corresponding service types on the carbon emissions is significant, with the intensity rising firstly and then decreasing with the upgrading of the manufacturing industry. Thirdly, the high-end The relationship between manufacturing industry and producer and distribution service industries is an important impetus to realize the peak of regional carbon emissions and the gradual decline of them. However, the positive effect of mid-level manufacturing industry and its corresponding characteristic service industry on carbon emissions Will be higher than the low-end manufacturing-led period. Therefore, combined with the experience of developed economies, we can find that the evolution of carbon emissions has the regular characteristics, while the analysis based on industrial relevance can provide a more operational reference. At present, China should vigorously promote the development of producer services and its association with manufacturing industries in the process of promoting the upgrading of its industrial structure and take active measures to reduce the intensity of energy consumption in distribution services such as transportation.