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人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间呈现负相关的结论在已有研究中取得了一定共识。本文通过对主要发达国家1980年至2014年间人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间的面板数据检验分析,发现人口抚养比每上升1%,将会显著降低经常账户余额占GDP的比率约1.1%。分开来看,老年抚养比变化对经常账户的影响不显著,而少儿抚养比变化的影响显著为负,且其影响程度约为总抚养比的2倍。由于2012年之后劳动年龄人口比率下降和老龄人口比率的上升,至少未来十五年内中国的人口抚养负担将会持续加重,经常账户余额将会向着顺差减少乃至逆差扩大的方向变化。政府当局的对策可以包括提高劳动参与率和劳动生产率、完善贸易结构、改善金融体系运营效率和提高对外投资收益等。
The conclusion that there is a negative correlation between the dependency ratio of the population and the current account balance has reached a certain consensus in the existing research. Based on panel data analysis between population dependency ratio and current account balance between major developed countries from 1980 to 2014, we find that every 1% increase in dependency ratio will significantly reduce the current account balance to about 1.1% of GDP. Seen separately, the effect of changes in dependency ratio on the current account was not significant, while the impact of changes in dependency ratio was significantly negative and the impact was about 2 times of the total dependency ratio. Due to the decline in the working-age population ratio and the aging population ratio after 2012, China’s dependency on population will continue to increase at least for the next 15 years and the current account balance will change in the direction of a reduction in surplus and widening of the deficit. Governmental responses may include increasing labor force participation and labor productivity, improving the trade structure, improving the operational efficiency of the financial system and increasing the returns on overseas investment.