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目的为了解南昌市丙型病毒性肝炎的流行特征及流行趋势,为科学制定防控措施提供依据。方法收集整理全国法定传染病网络直报系统中2005—2013年南昌市丙肝数据资料,利用描述流行病学方法分析流行特点,采用灰色模型GM(1,1)建立预测模型。结果 2005—2013年南昌市丙型病毒肝炎年均发病率为6.38/10万,发病率呈逐年上升趋势。常年均有发病,无明显的季节性特征。以30~69岁年龄段报告病例数最多,占总报告病例数的74.89%,男性病例数明显多于女性,主要发病人群职业是离退人员、家务待业、农民和工人。结论南昌市丙型肝炎发病处于快速上升阶段,应注重采取综合措施,预防控制丙型肝炎。
Objective To understand the epidemiological and epidemic trend of hepatitis C virus in Nanchang and provide the basis for scientific prevention and control measures. Methods The data of hepatitis C in Nanchang City from 2005 to 2013 were collected and compiled from the network of direct reports of notifiable infectious diseases in the country. The epidemiological characteristics were analyzed by using descriptive epidemiological method. The gray model GM (1,1) was used to establish the prediction model. Results The annual average incidence of hepatitis C virus in Nanchang was 6.38 / 100 000 between 2005 and 2013, and the incidence rate showed an increasing trend year by year. Perennial incidence, no obvious seasonal features. The number of cases reported in the age group of 30-69 was the highest, accounting for 74.89% of the total reported cases. The number of males was significantly more than that of females. The main occupational groups were retired, domestic workers, peasants and workers. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Nanchang City is in a rapidly rising stage. Comprehensive measures should be taken to prevent and control hepatitis C.