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通过分析财政政策对金融运行的冲击机理,进而以中国1997年1月~2012年3月的相关数据为基础,利用谱分析和CopulaGARCH模型实证得出:政府财政支出波动通过对基础货币变动、再贴现规模变动、公开市场拆借规模变动产生显著的冲击效应,进而对银行信贷、通货膨胀等产生显著影响。财政支出波动与金融波动之间存在密切的周期联动关系,但具体对各金融变量的影响程度各不相同,财政政策对中国银行信贷、国际贸易的调控效应比较显著,对股指的长期走势影响较低。财政余额对金融运行冲击效应低于财政支出,且经济危机时期财政余额的冲击效应相比较经济平稳期有所降低。
By analyzing the impact mechanism of fiscal policy on financial operation and based on the relevant data of China from January 1997 to March 2012, we use the spectral analysis and CopulaGARCH model to conclude that the fluctuation of government fiscal expenditure through the change of basic currency, The changes in the scale of discounts have a significant impact on the size of the open market borrowings, which in turn has a significant impact on bank credit and inflation. There is a close periodic linkage between the fluctuations of financial expenditure and financial fluctuations. However, the impact of fiscal variables on financial variables is different. Fiscal policy has more significant regulatory and control effects on credit and international trade of the Bank of China and has a greater impact on the long-term trend of the stock index low. The impact of fiscal balance on financial operations is lower than fiscal expenditure, and the impact of financial balances during the economic crisis is lower than that of the stable economy.