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“十一五”期间,中国国内生产总值年均实际增长11.2%,比“十五”时期年均增速快1.4个百分点。在中国经济持续高速发展中举足轻重的石油资源,近年来供需矛盾日益突出,对外依存度不断增大。文中利用计量经济学和时间序列分析的知识,对中国1953-2010年石油自给量和消费量数据建立ARIMA模型,预报2011-2020年数据并予以分析,继而提出应对中国石油问题之策,保障中国石油安全和国家安全。
During the 11th Five-Year Plan, China’s real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 11.2%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average during the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”. In recent years, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent and the dependence on foreign countries has been constantly increasing. Using the knowledge of econometrics and time series analysis, this paper establishes the ARIMA model of China’s oil self-sufficiency and consumption data from 1953 to 2010, predicts the data of 2011-2020 and analyzes it, and then puts forward the countermeasures to solve the problem of China’s petroleum and protects China Oil security and national security.