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在生态危机及产能过剩背景下,基于一定假设,把应用在消费领域的世代交叠模型推广到生产领域。为在更长远的时间内达到总效用最大化,在生态约束下,跨期优化每期GDP增速及GDP。为进行求解,把无限期世代交叠模型退化为有限的两期,发现最大化效用的各期生产量或发展速度,依赖于当前决策者的主观参量(对未来生产赋予的权重)及生态系统性态参量(是一个容易超负荷运行且一旦超负荷运行破坏又极小的系统,还是一个一旦超负荷运行,破坏又极大的系统)。这为化解当前生态危机及规避产能过剩提供部分政策启示。
Under the background of ecological crisis and overcapacity, based on certain assumptions, the generation overlapping model applied in the consumption field is extended to the production field. In order to achieve the maximization of total utility in the longer term, under the ecological constraints, the GDP growth rate and GDP per period should be optimized on an interim basis. To solve this problem, we degenerate the infinite-generation overlapping model into two finite periods and find that the production volume or speed of each stage of maximizing utility depends on the subjective parameters of current decision-makers (weights for future production) and ecosystems Performance parameters (a system that is easily overloaded, minimally damaged if it is overloaded, or a system that is extremely damaging if it is overloaded). This provides some policy implications for resolving the current ecological crisis and for overcapacity.