徐平生在《上海证券报》2005年9月16日撰文指出:绝大多数国际大宗商品运行已进入了形势逆转的敏感周期。首先,多数基础原材料价格大幅脱离生产成本,生产能力正在到达加速扩张的顶端。其次,全球经济的放缓使对国际大宗商品的需求增速正在下滑。从全球增长周期看, Xu Pingsheng wrote in Shanghai Securities News on September 16, 2005 that the vast majority of international commodity operations have entered a sensitive cycle in which the situation is reversed. First, the price of most basic raw materials is substantially out of production costs, and production capacity is at the peak of accelerating expansion. Second, the global economic slowdown has caused a slowdown in the growth of demand for international commodities. From the perspective of the global growth cycle,