一是经济意义上的长期通货紧缩问题。通过研究发现,目前中国的情况有点像日本,不是没有货币,储蓄率高但有效信用需求少,在这种情况下用国家信用代替民间信用来支撑整个信用的水平,导致政府负债率非常高。日本的资产负债表是比较健康的,国家有净资产,但部门分布不均衡,企业和居民都有净债权,政府净债务超过200%,这是长期通货紧缩背景下的一个腾挪之计。通货紧缩背景下, First, the issue of long-term deflation in the economic sense. The research shows that at present, China is a bit like Japan, not with no money, high savings rate but low effective credit demand. In this case, the national credit is used to replace the private credit to support the entire credit level, resulting in very high government debt ratio. Japan’s balance sheet is relatively healthy. The country has net assets but the sectors are unevenly distributed. Both businesses and residents have net claims and the government’s net debt exceeds 200%. This is a stalled move in the context of long-term deflation. In the context of deflation,