金价进入熊市的根本性条件并未发生改变。这一条件就是美国乃至全球其他央行将陆续进入紧缩周期。国际金价自去年年底下探1200美元大关后,过去两个月持续反弹,现已升至1340美元附近,涨幅超过10%。许多分析人士感叹,“中国大妈”的需求完胜了华尔街的做空力量,并再次高举唱多黄金的大旗。但笔者认为,黄金自去年开始的熊市可能还未结束,目前的反弹主要是受到近期美国数据持续疲软引发的市场对美联储政策动向的猜测,以及对中国经济增长和乌克兰政治局势的担忧和避险情绪的推动。而从更长期来看,随着全球经济集体迈上复苏的轨道,以及美联储坚持逐步缩减并最终 The fundamental conditions for gold to enter a bear market have not changed. This condition is that the United States and other global central banks will gradually enter the tightening cycle. The international gold price has continued its rally in the past two months after dropping to the $ 1,200 mark at the end of last year and now has risen to more than 10% around $ 1,340. Many analysts lamented that the demand for “China Aunt” won the shortfall on Wall Street and held high the gold flag. However, in my opinion, the bull market for gold since the beginning of last year may not be over yet. The current rally is mainly due to the market’s speculation on the Fed’s policy trends triggered by the recent weakening U.S. data as well as fears and hedging about China’s economic growth and Ukraine’s political situation. Emotional promotion. In the longer term, as the global economy is on the path to recovery and the Federal Reserve will continue its gradual reduction and eventually