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本文探讨了资本流动“突然中断”的形成机制,并基于1990年至2013年间的数据研究了19个新兴经济体“突然中断”的影响因素。结果表明,对外因素对“突然中断”发生概率的影响要大于内部变量的作用,其中GDP增长率、政府支出水平和外汇储备水平较高能够显著降低“突然中断”发生的可能性。我国应保持经济平稳发展,建立资本流动的监控体系,在保证监管的前提下逐步推进金融开放。
This paper explores the formation of capital flows “sudden interruptions ” and studies the influencing factors of “sudden interruptions” in 19 emerging economies based on data from 1990 to 2013. The results show that external factors have more influence on the probability of sudden interruption than internal variables. The higher GDP growth rate, government expenditure level and foreign exchange reserve can significantly reduce the probability of sudden interruption . China should maintain a steady economic development and establish a monitoring system for capital flows, and gradually promote financial liberalization under the premise of ensuring supervision.