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利用GAEZ模型,综合考虑气象、土壤、地形等因素,估算1961-2010年东北玉米生产潜力,分析50年来气候变化导致的东北玉米生产潜力时空格局演变特征。研究发现:1 1961-2010年,东北玉米平均生产潜力波动较大,整体上以每10年80 kg/hm2的线性倾向率增加;2由于气候变化,20世纪末、21世纪初玉米生产潜力变化较为频繁;3玉米生产潜力总值黑龙江省始终处于最高,近50年间增长幅度黑龙江省>吉林省>辽宁省;4近50年来,黑龙江省玉米生产潜力的波动较为剧烈,吉林省和辽宁省相对稳定;5近50年东北玉米适宜种植区有所增加,主要集中在黑龙江省西北地区,高生产潜力区域增加明显,呈现北移趋势。研究可为东北地区高效利用气候和土地资源,优化玉米生产布局提供依据。
Using the GAEZ model, taking into account such factors as meteorology, soil and topography, the productivity of northeast maize from 1961 to 2010 was estimated and the spatial and temporal evolution of maize production potential in Northeast China caused by climate change over the past 50 years was analyzed. The study found that: 1 From 1961 to 2010, the average production potential of maize in Northeast China fluctuated widely, with a linear trend of 80 kg / hm2 every 10 years. 2 The potential for maize production changed from the late 20th century to the early 21st century due to climate change Frequent; 3 the total potential of corn production in Heilongjiang Province has always been the highest in nearly 50 years, the growth rate of Heilongjiang Province> Jilin Province> Liaoning Province; 4 nearly 50 years, Heilongjiang Province, corn production potential volatility is more intense, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province is relatively stable ; 5 In the recent 50 years, suitable planting areas of northeast maize increased, mainly in the northwestern region of Heilongjiang Province, and the areas with high production potential increased obviously, showing a trend of northward migration. Research can provide the basis for efficient use of climate and land resources in Northeast China and optimization of maize production layout.