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借助协整理论、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等计量方法,对改革开放以来中国城市化与电力消费水平在长期与短期内相互影响的动态关系进行分析。结果表明,中国城市化与电力消费水平之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但二者相互作用的短期效应和长期效应并不一致,在长期内二者互为Granger原因,但均不构成对方的短期Granger原因。且二者相互影响的效应存在明显的差异,电力消费对城市化有较大的作用强度,而城市化对电力消费的冲击作用不大。上述结论表明,电力是城市化的基础,推进城市化要坚持“电力发展既要有一定的超前性,又要保持均衡发展”的原则。
Through the cointegration theory, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between urbanization and electricity consumption in China in the long run and short run since the reform and opening up. The results show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and electricity consumption in China. However, the short-term and long-term effects of the interaction between the two are not the same. In the long run, the two are Granger causes, but they do not constitute each other’s short-term Granger reason. There is a clear difference in the effects of the interaction between the two. Electricity consumption plays a greater role in urbanization, while urbanization has little impact on electricity consumption. The above conclusion shows that electricity is the basis of urbanization. To promote urbanization, we must adhere to the principle that “the development of power requires both advancedness and balanced development.”