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近年来中国寿险市场发展呈现出“寡头主导、大中小共生”的局面。究竟应重点发展“巨无霸”式的金融保险集团,还是应优先发展“船小好掉头”的中小保险公司,这是中国寿险市场面临的一个重要选择。Gibrat法则认为同一行业中的企业,其成长率是独立于其规模的变量,文章对Gibrat法则在寿险业的适用性进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:(1)Gibrat法则对中国的寿险公司不成立,规模越小的公司其成长率越高;(2)寿险公司资产增长率和保费增长率均存在条件收敛效应;(3)寿险公司的产业特点、业务结构和经营产生的外部性会较显著地影响其规模与成长。文章认为中国寿险市场发展的选择如果与本文所揭示的规律相匹配,则寿险业发展会进入良性循环。
In recent years, the development of China’s life insurance market shows the situation of “oligarch dominant, large, medium and small symbiotic”. Should focus on the development of the “Big Mac” -style financial insurance group, or should give priority to the development of “small ship U-turn ” small and medium insurance companies, which is China’s life insurance market is facing an important choice. Gibrat’s law holds that the growth rate of a firm in the same industry is a variable independent of its size. The article tests the applicability of Gibrat’s law in the life insurance industry. The results show that: (1) Gibrat’s law does not hold the Chinese life insurance company (2) There is a conditional convergence effect on both the asset growth rate and the premium growth rate of life insurance companies; (3) The industrial characteristics, business structure and management of life insurance companies will be more significant Affect its size and growth. The article holds that the development of life insurance industry will enter into a virtuous circle if the choice of the development of life insurance market in China matches with the law disclosed in this article.