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现行的电网建设工程基本预备费的测算主要依据固定费率,而基本预备费是预留来应对不可预见费用的,具有不确定性,仅仅依靠固定费率计取,不能很好地反映实际情况。为此,运用Minitab对影响电网建设工程基本预备费测算的各种因素(变更因素、自然灾害因素、额外建场费因素)的实际分布状况进行拟合分析,根据因素之间的相互关系建立测算模型,并结合实际案例通过Matlab进行蒙特卡洛模拟。模拟结果表明,与现行的测算方法相比,该方法能够很好地反映基本预备费的实际变动情况,可为造价人员合理控制工程造价提供参考。
The current basic construction budget calculation of the basic reserve costs are based on a fixed rate, while the basic reserve fee is reserved to deal with unforeseen costs, with uncertainty, relying solely on fixed rates, does not reflect the actual situation . To this end, Minitab used the fitting analysis of the actual distribution of various factors (change factors, natural disasters, additional site fees) that affect the calculation of the basic reserve cost of power grid construction, and established the calculation according to the interrelationship between the factors Model, and combined with the actual case of Monte Carlo simulation by Matlab. The simulation results show that compared with the current measurement methods, this method can well reflect the actual changes of the basic reserve cost and provide a reference for the cost personnel to reasonably control the construction cost.