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目的:探讨ARIMA模型在河南省AIDS疫情预测中的可行性。方法:收集河南省2005年至2013年AIDS发病率和病死率数据,分别建立ARIMA模型,通过模型拟合优度统计量筛选最优模型,采用平均误差率评估模型预测效果,并用所构建的模型预测2014年至2016年河南省AIDS疫情。结果:河南省AIDS发病率和病死率的最优ARIMA模型分别为ARIMA(0,1,1)和ARIMA(0,2,1);模型的拟合值均符合其实际流行趋势,平均误差率分别为0.16和0.25;预测2014年至2016年河南省AIDS发病率分别为3.40/10万、3.91/10万和4.50/10万,病死率分别为15.34%、8.82%和7.64%。结论:ARIMA模型很好地模拟了河南省AIDS疫情的演变趋势,可用于河南省AIDS发病率和病死率的预测。
Objective: To investigate the feasibility of ARIMA model in predicting AIDS epidemic situation in Henan province. Methods: AIDS morbidity and mortality data were collected from 2005 to 2013 in Henan Province. ARIMA models were established respectively. The optimal model was screened by goodness-of-fit statistics and the average error rate was used to evaluate the model’s predictive effect. Using the constructed model Predict AIDS epidemic in Henan Province from 2014 to 2016. Results: The optimal ARIMA models of AIDS morbidity and mortality in Henan Province were ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,2,1), respectively. The fitting values of the models accorded with their actual epidemic trends. The mean error rate Respectively 0.16 and 0.25. The incidence of AIDS in Henan Province from 2014 to 2016 was estimated to be 3.40 / 100,000, 3.91 / 100,000 and 4.50 / 100,000, respectively. The case fatality rates were 15.34%, 8.82% and 7.64% respectively. Conclusion: The ARIMA model well simulates the evolution trend of AIDS epidemic in Henan province and can be used to predict the AIDS morbidity and mortality in Henan Province.