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本文运用格兰杰-西姆斯(Granger-Sims)因果检验方法对国际石油价格与我国各宏观经济变量之间存在的因果关系进行检验,运用VAR和VEC模型对国际油价上涨对我国经济的影响进行定量分析,认为国际油价上涨对我国经济有比较大的消极影响。要减少并规避国际油价上涨对我国经济的不利影响,需要调整石油进口贸易方式,取得份额油,用石油期货规避价格风险;改革按月度组织石油进口的方式,实行随机采购。
This paper uses the Granger-Sims causality test to test the causal relationship between the international oil prices and the macroeconomic variables in China. Using the VAR and VEC models, the influence of the rising international oil prices on China's economy To conduct a quantitative analysis, that the international oil prices on China's economy have a greater negative impact. To reduce and circumvent the adverse effects of rising international oil prices on China's economy, it is necessary to adjust the oil import trade mode, obtain share oil, and avoid the price risk with oil futures; reform organize oil imports on a monthly basis and implement random procurement.