论文部分内容阅读
目的探索国际航行船舶外来医学媒介生物传入的风险因素。方法拟合舟山口岸2016年国际航行船舶数据,构建多因素非条件logistic回归模型,分析入境船舶携带媒介生物的风险因素。结果 2016年舟山口岸的入境船舶共计1 272艘,其中213艘船舶截获媒介生物,阳性检出率为16.75%。多因素分析显示:船舶类型(OR_(冷藏船vs.集装箱船)=7.591;OR_(散杂货船vs.集装箱船)=1.956;OR_(其他vs.集装箱船)=3.658)、到达季节(OR夏季vs.冬季=3.677;OR_(春季vs.冬季)=3.333;OR_(秋季vs.冬季)=2.928)、船舶免予卫生控制证书签发港口(OR=1.689)、装载货物(OR=1.651)、来源地属传染病疫区(OR=1.596)、船龄(OR=1.023)等6项因素与船舶携带外来医学媒介生物存在关联(P<0.05)。结论通过对医学媒介生物携带影响因素的量化分析,为国际航行船舶携带医学媒介生物风险评估及预警系统的建立提供理论基础,同时也利于确定重点检疫对象,指导实际检疫工作。
Objective To explore the risk factors of biological introduction of foreign medical vectors in international voyages. Methods Fitting 2016 international navigation data of Zhoushan Port to construct a multivariate non-conditional logistic regression model to analyze the risk factors of carrying vectors in ships entering the country. Results In 2016, the total number of inbound vessels at Zhoushan Port was 1 272, with 213 ships intercepting vector organisms. The positive detection rate was 16.75%. Multivariable analysis showed that the ship type (OR_ (refrigerated vessel vs. container vessel) = 7.591; OR_ (bulk cargo vessel vs. container vessel) = 1.956; OR_ (other vs. container vessel) = 3.658) OR = (spring vs. winter) = 3.333; OR_ (fall vs. winter) = 2.928), the ship was exempt from the hygiene control certificate issuance port (OR = 1.689), loading goods (OR = 1.651), source There were 6 factors associated with the carriage of foreign medical vectors (P <0.05) to the endemic areas of infectious diseases (OR = 1.596) and the age of the vessel (OR = 1.023) Conclusion Through the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of organism carriage in medical media, it provides a theoretical basis for the establishment of bio-risk assessment and early warning system for medical carriers carried by ships on international voyages, and also helps to identify the key quarantine targets and guides the actual quarantine work.