煤矿由于自身的生产特点,安全事故比较突出,我国煤矿事故死亡人数是世界上主要产煤国煤矿死亡人数的4倍以上。文章运用灰色预测法对某煤矿的安全事故死亡事故频率(FAFR)进行灾变预测,判断该煤矿下一个职工死亡事故频率高峰期出现的时间,并给出相应的算法,为制定完善的煤矿安全政策及煤矿安全预警控制系统提供决策依据。 Due to its own production characteristics and safety accidents, the number of coal mine accidents in China is more than four times of the death toll of coal mines in major coal producing countries in the world. In this paper, the gray prediction method is used to predict the catastrophic failure frequency of a coal mine accident (FAFR) to determine the occurrence time of the peak frequency of the fatal accidents of the next coal worker. The corresponding algorithms are given to establish a sound coal mine safety policy And coal mine safety early warning control system to provide decision-making basis.