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利用地球系统模式CESM的过去1500年气候模拟试验结果,分析了中世纪暖期和现代暖期中国区域温度和降水变化特征的异同,并对形成原因进行了初步探讨。研究表明:中国的温度变化在中世纪暖期和现代暖期有着显著的区域差异,且年代际变化特征亦不尽相同。现代暖期的温度存在一个明显的年代际突变,这一突变是由温室气体含量的变化引起的,且现代暖期温度变化的空间格局受人为因子影响较大。中世纪暖期温度变化的空间格局主要受太阳辐射变化的影响,其次是土地利用/覆盖和火山活动。中国的降水变化在两个增暖期其时空格局较类似,其主要模态均体现为西部与东部反相,华南与华北反相。影响降水变化空间格局的因子较复杂,各外强迫因子的作用互补。
Based on the climate simulation results of the Earth System Model CESM over the past 1500 years, the similarities and differences between temperature and precipitation in China during the Middle Ages and Modern Warm Periods are analyzed, and the formation causes are discussed. The results show that there are significant regional differences in temperature change between China and the Middle Ages, and the characteristics of interdecadal variations are also different. There is a significant interdecadal mutation in the temperature of the modern warm season. This mutation is caused by the change of the greenhouse gas content. The spatial pattern of the temperature change in the modern warm season is greatly influenced by human factors. The spatial pattern of temperature changes during the warm period in the Middle Ages was mainly affected by solar radiation changes, followed by land use / cover and volcanism. In China, the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation change are similar during the two warming periods. The main modes of precipitation are reversed in west and east, and opposite in south and north China. The factors influencing the spatial pattern of precipitation change are more complicated, and the roles of forcing factors in other countries are complementary.