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过去中外史家多将两淮盐商没落的原因归之于奢靡说、捐输宗族说、为善说、窖藏说等,并没有指涉其中关键因素。检讨旧说,从盐价与银钱比价,论述盐商营运成本与利润,能够总结盐商没落的关键原因。盐商的没落在于官盐的滞销,而官盐的滞销,原因在成本太高,以致盐价昂贵,无法与低价的私盐竞争。盐商成本的增加,乾隆以前,主要因为匣费、岸费、办公等浮费的增长及官员、胥吏的需索。乾隆末期以后,盐价的增涨与银价变动有密切关系,使得原有的盐务运销体系无法运转,官盐滞销。道光年间虽以废引改票的方式建立新的盐务运销体系,降低盐商成本,但也无法解决银钱比价带来的亏损问题。
In the past, Chinese and foreign historians mostly attributed the decline of salt merchants in the Huaihe River to extravagance, saying that donating and losing clans, saying good things and saying caves, did not refer to the key factors. The old review said that from salt and silver price parity, salt operators talked about operating costs and profits, can sum up the key reason for the decline of salt. The decline of salt merchants lies in the unsalable sales of official salt, while the unsalable sales of official salt are so costly that they are too expensive to compete with cheap private salts. Salt business costs increase, Qianlong before, mainly because of the box fee, bank charges, floating office expenses and the growth of official, clerk requisitions. After the end of the Qianlong period, the increase of the salt price was closely related to the change of the silver price, which made the original salt distribution and sales system unable to operate and the official salt was sold out. Although Daoguang years to waste cited the way to change the votes to establish a new salt distribution system to reduce the cost of salt business, but it can not solve the problem of money-money ratio losses.