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雨涝是造成作物减产或绝收的灾害之一。研究雨涝灾害对吉林这个产粮大省和商品粮输出大省有着十分重要的意义。利用“Z指数”计算了吉林省50个气象观测站1980—2011年逐年6月、7月和8月的雨涝发生等级(偏涝、大涝和重涝)。之后采用多元回归方法建立了全省农作物受灾面积和成灾面积与全省当年6—8月逐月偏涝发生站次、大涝发生站次和重涝发生站次的关系模型。结果表明,农作物受灾面积和成灾面积与全省偏涝发生站次回归不显著,与重涝发生站次和大涝发生站次成正相关。其中,重涝相关性最显著,其次是大涝。但农作物受涝除与降雨有关外,还与水利建设投入、土壤特性等其他因素有关。其中水利建设的影响较大,1998年后,吉林省加大水利建设投入,因此农作物受灾和成灾面积显著减少。综上所述,应加大水利建设投入,加强大涝年的准确预报和预警,以有效地切断雨涝灾害链,减少损失。
Rain and waterlogging are one of the disasters that have caused crops to decline or become unmanaged. Research on rain and waterlogging disaster is of great significance to Jilin, a major grain-producing province and a major exporter of grain products. Using the “Z index”, we calculated the rainfall occurrence levels (floods, heavy floods and floods) in June, July and August each year from 1980 to 2011 in 50 meteorological stations in Jilin Province. After using multiple regression method to establish the province’s affected area and disaster area of crops and the province from June to August monthly floodlogging occurred station times, floods occurred station and heavy waterlogging station occurrence relationship model. The results showed that there was no significant regression between the area affected by the disaster and the area affected by floods and the positive correlation with the occurrence of floods and floods. Among them, the most significant correlation between heavy waterlogging, followed by floods. However, crop waterlogging in addition to rainfall-related, but also with the water conservancy construction inputs, soil properties and other factors. Among them, water conservancy construction has a great impact. After 1998, Jilin Province increased investment in water conservancy construction, resulting in a significant reduction in the area harmed and harmed by crops. To sum up, investment in water conservancy should be increased to enhance the accurate forecast and early warning of flood years, so as to effectively cut off the chain of rain and water disasters and reduce losses.