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为定量评价寒露风对江西省双季晚稻的影响,依据1981—2013年江西省81个常规气象观测站9月1日—10月10日逐日平均气温、最低气温资料和1991—2012年江西省14个农业气象观测站双季晚稻灾害调查资料,研究江西省双季晚稻寒露风影响评估模型和等级划分标准,并利用江西省农业气象试验站2010—2013年晚稻分期播种试验资料进行验证。结果表明,在晚稻寒露风发生期间,降温幅度、过程平均气温、极端最低温度和低温持续时间对水稻冷害具有同等重要的作用,4个因子同时出现或部分出现异常均可以造成不同程度的冷害。在综合考虑了上述4个因子的基础上,结合主成分分析法构建寒露风影响评估模型和等级划分标准,其分期播种试验检验评估等级与实际等级完全一致的占80%;运用模型对江西省2006、2011年2次明显寒露风天气过程进行评估,评估准确率较高,达87.5%;表明所建立的模型可以用来定量评价江西省各市(县)晚稻寒露风发生程度。据此确定的寒露风评价指标为:寒露风指数(CDWI)≥0.70时为重度寒露风,晚稻减产>15%;CDWI在0.50~0.70时,发生中度寒露风,晚稻减产10%~15%;CDWI在0.30~0.50时,发生轻度寒露风,晚稻减产5%~10%。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the effect of cold dew on double cropping late rice in Jiangxi Province, based on the daily average temperature and minimum temperature data of 81 conventional meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from September 1 to October 10, 1981 to 2013 and the data of Jiangxi Province 14 agricultural meteorological observatories double season late rice disaster survey data to study the impact of double-season rice winter dew in Jiangxi Province impact assessment model and classification criteria, and the use of Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Station 2010-2013 late rice stage sowing test data to verify. The results showed that in the late rice cold exposed wind, the cooling rate, the average temperature of the process, the extreme minimum temperature and the duration of the cold have an equally important effect on the chilling injury of rice, and the simultaneous or partial occurrence of the four factors can cause different degrees of chilling injury. Based on the above four factors, combined with the principal component analysis to establish the impact assessment model of cold dew wind and the standard of grade classification, the staged seeding test has the same level of assessment and appraisal as 80% of the actual grade. Using the model, In 2006 and 2011, the appraisal of the clear and dew weather process was significant, with a high accuracy of 87.5%. The results show that the model can be used to quantitatively evaluate the occurrence of cold dew and wind in late rice in cities and counties in Jiangxi Province. The evaluation index of cold dew and wind was determined as follows: cold dew wind of ≥0.70 when cold dew wind index (CDWI) ≥0.70, moderate dew dew wind of late rice> 15% when CDWI was between 0.50 and 0.70, When the CDWI was between 0.30 and 0.50, mild cold and wind dew occurred, and the yield of late rice was reduced by 5% -10%.