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为实现对金属矿山紧急避险能力的可靠预测,建立了基于粗糙集-未确知测度理论的紧急避险能力评价模型。以问卷调查的方式获取指标数据;运用粗糙集理论对影响紧急避险能力的28个指标进行约简,删除相对不重要的指标,从而得到最优指标,进而通过归一化数据求得约简指标的综合权重;对约简后的指标建立未确知测度模型。以广西某矿为例,根据专家的打分,确定单指标未确知测度;依据置信度准则,进行等级判定,得出该矿山的紧急避险能力评价结果。将预测结果与专家评价结果对比,两者结果相符,表明该方法可行。
In order to realize the reliable prediction of emergency rescue ability of metal mines, an emergency risk assessment model based on rough set-unascertained measurement theory is established. Using the rough set theory to reduce the 28 indexes that affect the ability of emergency avoidance and delete the relatively unimportant indexes, so as to get the optimal index, and then to get the reduction through the normalized data The comprehensive weight of the indicator; the unascertained measure model is established for the reduced indicator. Taking a mine in Guangxi as an example, according to the scoring by experts, the unascertained measure of single indicator is determined. Based on the confidence criteria, the grade is determined and the evaluation result of the emergency refuge risk of the mine is obtained. The result of the prediction is compared with the result of expert evaluation, the result of the two is in good agreement, which shows that the method is feasible.