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鲜水河断裂带在印度板块与欧亚板块顶撞作用的驱使下,表现了强烈的左旋走滑运动及频繁的强震活动,是我国西南地区重要的强震发动带。本文根据断层长期平均位错速率与地震滑动速率的对比,认为鲜水河断裂带第四纪以来的阶层错开是地震位错重复迭加的结果。在地震时断层水平位错分布研究的基础上,结合地震破裂在断裂带内的分布认为沿鲜水河断裂在乾宁南北两侧存在两个长度不大的地震破裂空区。它们可能以断层蠕动为特征,其存在对乾宁附近应变积累与释放起着不可忽视的制约与调节作用。最后,按Chinncry走滑断层地震水平位错分布的理论模型计算了鲜水河断裂带近250年的地震位错分布,结合弹性回跳理论的基本原理估计了鲜水河断裂带的强震趋势。认为未来强震将迁往乾宁,康定一带。
Driven by the collision between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate, the Xianshuihe fault zone shows strong left-lateral strike-slip and frequent strong earthquakes and is an important strong earthquake strike zone in southwest China. Based on the comparison between the long-term average dislocation rate and the earthquake slip rate, we conclude that the stratification of the Xianshuihe fault zone since the Quaternary Period is the result of the repeated superimposition of seismic dislocations. Based on the study of the dislocation distribution of faults at the time of an earthquake and the distribution of earthquake rupture in the fault zone, it is considered that there are two seismic rupture areas along the Xianshuihe fault on both sides of the north and south of Ganning. They may be characterized by fault creep, whose existence plays a non-negligible role in the regulation and regulation of strain accumulation and release near Ganning. Finally, based on the theoretical model of horizontal dislocation distribution in the Chinncry strike-slip fault, the distribution of seismic dislocation in the Xianshuihe fault zone for nearly 250 years has been calculated. Based on the basic principles of the elastic bounce theory, the strong earthquakes in the Xianshuihe fault zone have been estimated . That the future quake will be relocated to dry Ning, Kangding area.