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一、宏观经济环境(一)全球经济复苏,预计2010年全球贸易量将增加据世界银行公布,受金融危机影响,2009年全球GDP的实际增长为-2.1%,并预测2010年将恢复正增长,达到3.3%。国际货币基金组织的预测更为乐观,认为2010年的实际增长可达4.6%。在贸易量方面,根据世界贸易组织的数据,2009年的全球贸易量下降12.2%,为第二次世界大战以来最大降幅。进入2010年,全球经济复苏,货物及服务贸易也正恢复增长。全球各大组织对未来全球贸易量的预测普遍乐观。世界贸易组织表示,2010年全球贸易量有望增长9.5%。世界银行估计
I. Macroeconomic environment (1) Global economic recovery. It is expected that the global trade volume will increase in 2010 According to the World Bank, the actual growth of global GDP in 2009 was -2.1%, and it is predicted that the positive growth will be resumed in 2010. , reached 3.3%. The International Monetary Fund’s forecast is more optimistic. It believes that the actual growth in 2010 will reach 4.6%. In terms of trade volume, according to the World Trade Organization, global trade volume in 2009 fell by 12.2%, the largest decline since the Second World War. In 2010, the global economy has recovered, and trade in goods and services is also returning to growth. Global major organizations are generally optimistic about the forecast of future global trade volume. The World Trade Organization stated that the global trade volume in 2010 is expected to increase by 9.5%. World Bank estimates