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文基于LMDI方法分别构建了电耗分解的三因素模型,并对北京市1978-2012年的电耗进行分解。发现过去几十年来,产业结构的合理化助推用电结构改变,大大削减了北京市第一、二产业中由于产能扩大带来的电耗。第二产业中的技术进步大幅削减了产能扩大带来的电耗。第三产业中技术创新对电耗下降的推动力尚不显著。在产业结构进一步合理化空间减小的当前,北京市政府应首先重视技术创新,转变经济发展思路,让技术革新对电耗降低起到关键性作用。
Based on the LMDI method, a three-factor model of power consumption decomposition is constructed respectively, and the power consumption of Beijing from 1978 to 2012 is decomposed. It has been found that the rationalization of industrial structure has helped to push forward the structural changes in power consumption in the past few decades and greatly reduced the power consumption in the first and second industries in Beijing due to the expansion of production capacity. The technological advances in the secondary industry have drastically reduced the power consumption caused by the expansion of production capacity. The impetus of technological innovation in the tertiary industry on the reduction of electricity consumption is not significant. At a time when the space for further rationalization of industrial structure is reduced, the Beijing municipal government should first attach importance to technological innovation and change its thinking on economic development so that technological innovation plays a key role in reducing power consumption.