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为了更加客观地分析中国服务贸易结构和服务业内部结构的失衡程度,笔者构建了一个包含美国、加拿大、原欧盟15国、日本、韩国、新加坡、中国香港、新西兰、澳大利亚共23个发达国家(地区)的参照系,采用三角白化权函数灰色评估分析法,将服务贸易结构失衡分为轻微失衡、一般失衡和严重失衡3个灰类。结果表明:2000年~2013年中国服务贸易结构由严重失衡转为一般失衡,而参照系则始终处于轻微失衡的状态;以参照系为基准计算的中国服务贸易结构失衡程度显示中国服务贸易出口结构失衡状况不断改善,而进口结构失衡则愈加恶化。
In order to more objectively analyze the imbalance between the structure of China’s service trade and the internal structure of the service industry, the author constructed a total of 23 developed countries (including the United States, Canada, the former EU15, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia Area), the gray evaluation method of trigonometry whitening weight function was used to divide the imbalance of service trade into three categories: slight imbalance, general imbalance and serious imbalance. The results show that from 2000 to 2013, China’s service trade structure shifted from a serious imbalance to a general imbalance, while the reference system remained in a slightly unbalanced state. The unbalanced degree of China’s service trade structure based on the reference frame shows that China’s service trade export structure Imbalances continue to improve, while import imbalances have worsened.