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目的:本文运用直线方程法及季节比重预测医院门急诊量,为医院编制、完善管理工作计划提供科学依据。方法:采用直线方程法和季节比重法,预测门诊、急诊量。结果:通过直线方程法分析5年门急诊量属直线型发展趋势,预测结果显示第6年门急诊量仍是增长趋势,结合季节比重法进行季节预测,得出每年2月是谷底、12月是高峰的变化规律。结论:采用直线方程法和季节比重相结合的预测方法,既能分析门急诊量的发展趋势,又能促进医院卫生资源优化配置。
OBJECTIVE: In this paper, the linear equation method and seasonal proportion are used to predict the emergency department of hospitals, which provides a scientific basis for the hospital to prepare and perfect the management plan. Methods: The linear equation method and seasonal proportion method were used to predict the outpatient and emergency volume. Results: According to the linear equation method, the five-year outpatient and emergency department is a straight-line development trend. The prediction results show that the outpatient and emergency department is still increasing in the sixth year. Combined with the seasonal proportion method, Is the peak of the law of change. Conclusion: The combination of linear equation method and seasonal proportion method can not only analyze the trend of development of emergency department, but also promote the optimal allocation of hospital health resources.