用少量数据建立的长期预测模型所得预测结果一般离散性较大，本文介绍的等维灰色动态预测法弥补了这一缺陷。依据这一方法编制的“灰色原理应用系统”软件包，在获得预测结果的同时，还可得到预测值的变化过程及模型的相应参数，可即时对预测结果的可靠性作出判断。以大连湾污染物排放量及海湾水质的预测为例，对该方法的有效性进行了检验。 The prediction results obtained from the long-term prediction model with a small amount of data are generally discrete. The isometric gray dynamic prediction method introduced in this paper makes up for this shortcoming. The gray principle application software package prepared according to this method can get the forecasting result and the predictive value change process and the corresponding parameters of the model at the same time, which can make the judgment of the reliability of the forecasting result in real time. Taking the prediction of the discharge of pollutants in the Dalian Bay and the gulf water quality as an example, the validity of this method is tested.