伊朗是中国最重要的能源进口地之一,如果油价升至150美元/桶,中国工业原料成本就会上升一倍,输入型通胀很可能导致新一轮通胀卷土重来,影响中国本已放缓的宏观经济。2011年末以来,国际政治安全局势的最大风险就是伊朗局势的恶化。随着国际原子能机构发布伊核报告,伊朗多次举行军演并发出封锁霍尔木兹海峡警告,美 Iran is one of the most important energy importers in China. If oil prices rise to US $ 150 / barrel, the cost of China’s industrial raw materials will double. Input-type inflation is likely to lead to a new round of inflation and affect China’s already slowdown Macro economy. Since the end of 2011, the biggest risk to the international political security situation has been the deterioration of the situation in Iran. With the issuance of the nuclear test report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran’s repeated military exercise and the blockade of the warning of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States