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当银行间流动性过于充分时,央行可通过回购开展公开市场操作,央行票据成为央行进行货币供应量调控、引导市场利率的重要政策工具。但副作用日益显现,于是改进调节手段的声音不断出现。文章首先分析中央银行票据在公开市场操作中的机理以及优缺点,在理论层面分析央票的前景。其次,通过格兰杰因果检验的分析方法,对于央票净发行量和货币供给之间的关系进行研究。最后,在实证基础上,对于央票业务的完善提出针对性的政策建议。
When the inter-bank liquidity is too full, the central bank can conduct open market operations through repurchase, and the central bank bills become central bank’s important policy instruments for regulating the money supply and guiding market interest rates. However, side effects have become increasingly apparent, and as a result, voices have been steadily appearing to improve regulation. The article first analyzes the mechanism, advantages and disadvantages of the central bank bills in the open market operation and analyzes the prospect of the central bank bill on a theoretical level. Secondly, through the analysis of Granger causality test, this paper studies the relationship between the net circulation of central bank bills and the money supply. Finally, on the basis of positive evidence, we put forward some suggestions for the improvement of the central bank bill business.