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本文基于“自下而上”法估算了1993~2012年中国旅游业能源消费和CO_2排放量,并对其总体变化趋势进行时间序列分析;以LMDI分解技术辨识与分解4个时段(1993~1997年、1998~2002年、2003~2007年和2008~2012年)中影响中国旅游业CO_2排放量变动的关键因素及其对CO_2排放量的贡献值。结果显示:20年来中国旅游业能源消费与CO_2排放量增长态势明显;其中旅游交通是中国旅游业能源消费和CO_2排放的核心部门,年平均比重分别为88.51%和77.42%,旅游住宿次之,旅游活动的贡献最小。LMDI分析结果显示,产业规模和空间结构是引起中国旅游业能源消费CO_2排放量增加的主要因素,能源强度是引起CO_2排放量减少的主要贡献因素;旅游业CO_2排放量增幅较大的省区多数位于东部地区,这是当前中国旅游业实行节能减排的重点区域。本文据此指出中国旅游业节能减排的主要方向、核心环节、重点区域和相应措施等。
This paper estimates the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions of China’s tourism industry from 1993 to 2012 based on the “bottom-up” method, and analyzes the general trend of the changes in time series. According to LMDI decomposition technology, four periods (1993 ~ 1997, 1998 ~ 2002, 2003 ~ 2007 and 2008 ~ 2012), and the contribution to CO 2 emissions in China’s tourism industry. The results show that the growth of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China’s tourism industry has been significant over the past 20 years. Tourism transportation is the core sector of China’s tourism energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, with an average annual volume of 88.51% and 77.42% respectively, followed by tourism accommodation, The smallest contribution to tourism activities. The results of LMDI analysis show that the industrial scale and spatial structure are the main factors that cause the increase of CO 2 emissions in energy consumption of tourism in China. The energy intensity is the main contributor to the decrease of CO 2 emissions. The majority of provinces and autonomous regions with large increase in tourism CO 2 emissions Located in the eastern region, which is currently China’s tourism industry to implement energy-saving emission reduction key areas. This paper points out the main directions, core links, key areas and corresponding measures of energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s tourism industry.