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基于元谋、宾川、东川、祥云、楚雄及昆明等6个站1960-2000年的逐月气象数据及作物种植、农业耕作等资料,采用Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析法研究了金沙江干热河谷近40多年来的干湿变化及农业灌溉需水量转折变化趋势。结果表明,整个河谷内降水量增加、日照时数减少,气温却出现升高和降低两种趋势,气温在干热河谷内为下降,但在龙川江、鱼泡江、普渡河等支流的上游地区呈升高趋势,但ET0都显著降低,干湿指数、水稻及农业综合灌溉需水定额也都呈普遍下降的趋势;金沙江河谷及支流上游的气象因子、ET0、干湿指数、水稻灌溉及农业综合灌溉定额系列的转折变化集中在20世纪70年代末~80年代初、80年代末~90年代初两个时段,在降水量最小的宾川站,对气候变化的响应更为敏感。
Based on the monthly meteorological data of six stations of Yuanmou, Binchuan, Dongchuan, Xiangyun, Chuxiong and Kunming from 1960 to 2000 and crop cultivation and agricultural cultivation, the authors used Mann-Kendall method and R / S analysis to study the effects of Sands Dry and wet changes in the dry valley of the Yangtze River and the changing trend of water demand in agricultural irrigation in recent 40 years. The results show that the precipitation increases in the whole valley, the sunshine duration decreases, the temperature increases and decreases, and the temperature decreases in the dry-hot valley. However, in the upstream of the Longchuanjiang, Yubaoyu and Purdue rivers, But the ET0 decreased significantly. The wet-dry index, the water quota of rice and agricultural irrigation also tended to decline generally. The meteorological factors, ET0, wet and dry index, rice irrigation And agricultural irrigation quota series of changes in the turning point of focus concentrated in the late 1970s ~ early 1980s, two late 80s ~ early 90s, Binshuizhan precipitation in the smallest, more responsive to climate change.