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全球经济强劲复苏带来了铜消费的旺盛,产量的低幅增长难以满足需求,2004年全球精铜市场出现较大的供应缺口,极大地刺激了铜价进入周期性的大幅攀升期,并在10月初创出1989年以来的最高水平。但随着铜价在较高水平停留,铜产量已开始较快增长,而且在高油价等因素的影响下,预计2005年全球经济增速将回落,并将导致铜需求增速放慢。因此,2005年的铜价将逐渐脱离顶部区域,向价值区域回归,但在“中国因素”以及低库存、小幅供应缺口的影响下,预计回落的速度和幅度都将有限。
The strong recovery of the global economy brought strong consumption of copper and the slow growth of output could not meet the demand. In 2004, there was a large supply gap in the global refined copper market, which greatly stimulated the copper price to enter a period of cyclical sharp rise. The highest level since 1989 is the highest since early this month. However, as copper prices stay at higher levels, copper production has started to grow rapidly. Under the influence of high oil prices and other factors, the global economic growth is expected to fall in 2005 and the growth of copper demand will slow down. As a result, the copper price in 2005 will gradually depart from the top area and return to the value area. However, with the “China factor” and the low inventory and slight supply gap, the expected rate of decline will be limited.