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本文通过构建一个六部门的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,引入利率管制等方程来刻画中国央行货币政策行为,在生产函数中引入资本利用率,同时把资本利用率引入折旧,将折旧处理成资本利用率的一个函数,模拟中国利率市场化改革带来的冲击效应。结果表明,当前利率市场化对宏观经济的冲击效应并不显著,甚至大部分经济变量对利率市场化冲击并不敏感。利率市场化的风险并没有想象中的那么巨大。
This article constructs a six-departmental Keynesian DSGE model, introduces interest rate control and other equations to describe the behavior of the central bank’s monetary policy, introduces capital utilization into the production function, at the same time introduces capital utilization into depreciation and depreciation into capital utilization A function that simulates the impact of market-based reforms in China’s interest rates. The results show that the impact of the current marketization of interest rates on the macroeconomy is not significant, and most of the economic variables are not sensitive to the impact of the marketization of interest rates. The risk of market-based interest rates is not as dramatic as it is imagined.