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运用笔者建议的基于模糊近似推断原理的震害预测总体模型,可以得到一个城市或一个地区适当划分的每个小区的各类建筑物的震害度。本文是这个模型的延伸,它主要运用集值统计中的落影贝叶斯原理,来预测该区中各类建筑物可能遭受不同破坏等级的房屋的具体数量。这对于一个城市的震害预测和减轻地震灾害计划的制订,都是十分重要的。本文首先简要回顾了笔者提出的震害预测总体模型,接着介绍了集值统计和落影贝叶斯原理,最后,详细叙述了各类建筑物不同破坏等级的房屋数量的预测方法,并举出了应用的实例。
Using the earthquake damage prediction model proposed by the author based on the fuzzy approximation inference principle, the earthquake damage degree of each type of building in each district properly divided by a city or an area can be obtained. This paper is an extension of this model. It mainly uses the Bayesian principle of set-value statistics to predict the specific number of buildings in the area that may suffer different damage levels. This is very important for the prediction of earthquake damage in a city and the formulation of plans for mitigating earthquakes. This article first briefly reviews the seismic damage prediction model proposed by the author, followed by the set-value statistics and the Bayesian principle of shadowing. Finally, a detailed description of the prediction methods for the number of houses with different damage levels for various types of buildings is given. Application examples.