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降雨和地震是滑坡发生的主要诱发因素,且二者均具有很大的不确定性。四川雅安峡口地区为地震烈度VII度区,但地震活动较频繁,另外降雨量及地下水位随季节变化大,滑坡诱发作用强烈且具有明显的不确定性,研究诱发因素的不确定性对边坡可靠性而言至关重要。从静力学角度改进了基于Monte-Carlo法和剩余推力法的边坡可靠性分析方法,使地下水和地震力的随机性得到了考虑。综合考虑岩土体物理力学参数、地震力及地下水的随机性,以四川雅安峡口滑坡为研究对象,进行了多随机因素影响下的边坡可靠性分析。分析表明:地下水位随机性及降雨量变化对边坡可靠性影响较大,而地震随机性对边坡可靠性影响不大,但是地震力的存在对于边坡稳定系数的影响明显。
Rainfall and earthquakes are the main inducing factors of landslides, and both of them have great uncertainty. The seismic intensity in the Yaqu area of Ya’an in Sichuan Province is region VII of seismic intensity, but the seismic activity is more frequent. In addition, the precipitation and groundwater level vary greatly with the seasons, and the induced landslides are intense with obvious uncertainties. Slope reliability is of the utmost importance. The reliability analysis method of slope based on Monte-Carlo method and residual thrust method is improved from the standpoint of static mechanics. The randomness of groundwater and seismic force is considered. Considering the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil, the seismic force and the randomness of groundwater, the landslide in Ya’an, Sichuan Province is taken as the research object, and the slope reliability analysis under the influence of multiple random factors is carried out. The analysis shows that the randomness of groundwater level and the change of rainfall have a great influence on the slope reliability, but the randomness of the earthquake has little effect on the slope reliability, but the existence of the earthquake force has an obvious influence on the slope stability coefficient.