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气候变暖会加剧青藏工程走廊多年冻土区融沉灾害的发生,威胁重大工程的安全运营.选取冻土体积含冰量和活动层厚度变化量为指标,借助ArcGIS软件,采用融沉指数模型对青藏工程走廊融沉灾害做出了区划.结果表明:在未来50 a,青藏工程走廊内融沉灾害在A1B和A2情景下主要为中高风险性,在B1情景下主要为中低风险性.高风险区主要分布在楚玛尔河高平原、五道梁和开心岭等高温高含冰量冻土区.
Climate warming will exacerbate the occurrence of sinking and melting disasters in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Project corridor, threatening the safe operation of major projects.Considering the amount of ice volume in the frozen soil and the thickness of the active layer as an indicator, using ArcGIS software, The results show that the sinking and sinking hazards in the corridor of Qinghai-Tibet are mainly medium and high risk in A1B and A2 scenarios and low and middle risk in B1 scenario in the next 50 years. High-risk areas are mainly located in the Chumaer River plains, Wudaoliang and happy heart and other high temperature ice-rich frozen soil area.