论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨湖南省丙型肝炎(丙肝)发病的空间聚集情况以及建立空间回归模型,探索影响湖南省丙肝发病的因素,为公共卫生决策提供证据支持。方法使用全局Moran’s I系数与局部Moran’s I系数描述湖南省2011—2015年丙肝发病的聚集性情况;基于模型LM统计量值决策并建立适宜的空间依赖性回归模型,并使用模型R2,AIC与SC值评价模型拟合效果。结果 2011—2015年,湖南省丙肝发病率的全局Moran’s I系数分别为0.354 2、0.370 3、0.356 9、0.425 7、0.460 9,各年的Moran’s I系数近似正态性检验差异均有统计学意义。局部高发地区集中在湘西怀化、湘中衡阳和邵阳等地。建立了空间滞后性回归模型,模型的R2,AIC与SC值分别为0.627 1、1 020.86、1 034.96,引入的变量有人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染率(1/10万)、城市化水平(%)以及人均年收入(元),回归系数分别为1.050 8、0.560 6、-0.001 0。结论 2011—2015年,湖南省丙肝发病具有地区聚集性,且聚集性呈逐年增高趋势。湖南省地区新发HIV感染率、地区城市化水平与地区丙肝发病率呈正相关,地区人均年收入与地区丙肝发病率呈负相关。
Objective To investigate the spatial distribution of hepatitis C (HCV) in Hunan Province and to establish a spatial regression model to explore the factors that affect the incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan Province and provide evidence support for public health decision-making. Methods The global Moran’s I coefficient and local Moran’s I coefficient were used to describe the aggregation status of hepatitis C in Hunan province during 2011-2015. Based on the model LM statistical value decision-making and the establishment of an appropriate space-dependent regression model, models R2, AIC and SC Value evaluation model fitting effect. Results From 2011 to 2015, the global Moran’s I coefficients of incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan Province were 0.354, 2.0370 3, 0.3556 9, 0.425 7 and 0.460 9, respectively. The Moran’s I coefficients of each year had similar statistical significance . High-incidence areas concentrated in western Hunan Huaihua, Hunan and Hengyang Hengyang and other places. The spatial lag regression model was established. The R2, AIC and SC values of the model were 0.627, 1 020.86 and 1 034.96, respectively. The introduced variables were HIV infection rate (1/10000), urbanization level (%) And per capita annual income (yuan), the regression coefficients were 1.050 8,0.560 6,0.001 0 respectively. Conclusion From 2011 to 2015, the incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan Province was clustered together and the aggregation tendency showed an increasing trend year by year. The rate of new HIV infection in Hunan Province and the level of urbanization in Hunan Province are positively correlated with the incidence of hepatitis C in the region. The annual per capita income of the region is negatively correlated with the incidence of hepatitis C in the region.