论文部分内容阅读
目的了解湖州市传染病自动预警信息系统在传染病暴发早期探测的应用情况及效果,为进一步完善和优化预警系统提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2008 2013年湖州市传染病自动预警系统生成的预警信号、预警病种、响应时间、核实方式、灵敏度和阳性预测值等进行分析。结果 2008 2013年,预警系统共发出预警信号4395条,信号响应率为100%,24 h内信号响应率为89.08%。预警信号数与法定传染病网络报告病例数呈正相关,r=0.840(P<0.01)。涉及23种传染病,核实方式以综合分析为主,占74.47%。54条预警信号被判断为疑似事件,经过现场调查共确认暴发11起,预警系统的灵敏度为69.23%,预测值为0.25%。结论传染病自动预警系统运行良好,预警系统灵敏度较高,可初步实现传染病暴发早期自动预警,但预警系统的阳性值较低,仍需进一步优化。
Objective To understand the application situation and effect of early detection of infectious disease outbreak in Huzhou infectious disease automatic warning information system and provide evidence for further improvement and optimization of early warning system. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the early warning signals, early warning diseases, response time, verification methods, sensitivity and positive predictive values generated in 2008-2013 automatic epidemic warning system for infectious diseases in Huzhou City. Results In 2013, a total of 4395 early-warning signals were issued by the early-warning system. The signal response rate was 100%. The signal response rate was 89.08% within 24 hours. The number of early warning signals was positively correlated with the number of reported cases of forensic infectious diseases, r = 0.840 (P <0.01). Involved in 23 kinds of infectious diseases, verification methods to comprehensive analysis, accounting for 74.47%. 54 early warning signals were judged as suspected events. After field investigation, 11 outbreaks were confirmed, the sensitivity of the early warning system was 69.23% and the predicted value was 0.25%. Conclusion The automatic warning system for infectious diseases is in good condition and the sensitivity of the early warning system is high. Early warning of the outbreak of infectious diseases can be initially achieved, but the positive value of the early warning system is low and needs to be further optimized.