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上半年银行业运行显示盈利增长源继续由量向质转移,下半年到06上半年难有行业性盈利增长点,风险因素不断累积。结合行业基本面和投资环境的分析,我们认为本轮银行股的投资机会将会随着股权分置对价的支付和建设银行上市而结束,进入新的调整和发展期。目前5家国内上市银行中,我们建议回避深发展、华夏银行,关注民生银行、浦发银行,买入招商银行。
In the first half of the year, the operation of banking industry showed that the sources of profit growth continued to shift from quantitative to qualitative. In the second half of 2006, it was hard to have any profit growth point of industry in the first half of 2006, and the risk factors continued to accumulate. Based on the analysis of the industry fundamentals and investment environment, we think the investment opportunities of the current round of bank stocks will end with the payment of share placement and the listing of China Construction Bank and will enter into a period of new adjustment and development. At present, among the 5 domestic listed banks, we suggest to evade Shenzhen Development Bank, Huaxia Bank, Minsheng Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank.