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目的:在突发传染病疫情现场,实现疫情的发展趋势预测及重要流行病参数估计。方法:基于SIR、SIS及SEIR动力学模型,实现疫情发展趋势预测,基于退火算法实现疫情重要参数估计,并基于JAVA语言建立重要呼吸道传染病疫情现场预测预警系统。结果:该系统不仅可以根据已知的流行病学特征参数预测传染病疫情发展趋势,还可以根据每天的新增发病人数,精确估计重要的流行病学特征参数,从而进行疫情的发展趋势预测。结论:该系统的建立能够实现疫情的现场快速有效预测预警,从而提高了疫情处置的时效性和科学性。
OBJECTIVE: To predict the development trend of epidemic situation and estimate the parameters of important epidemic diseases in the spot of epidemic outbreaks. Methods: Based on the SIR, SIS and SEIR dynamic models, the prediction of epidemic situation was realized, and the important parameters of the epidemic were estimated based on annealing algorithm. Based on the JAVA language, an on-site forecasting and early warning system of the epidemic of respiratory infectious diseases was established. Results: The system can not only predict the epidemic trend of infectious diseases based on the known epidemiological parameters, but also accurately estimate the important epidemiological parameters according to the number of newly infected patients per day, so as to predict the development trend of the epidemic. Conclusion: The establishment of this system can make the scene of the outbreak rapid and effective forecast and early warning, thus improving the timeliness and scientific treatment of the outbreak.