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自 70年代后期 ,美国仅仅部分地摆脱了“储量危险时期” ,产量连续下滑看来不可避免。增加的储量过多地依赖于现有油田的调整 ,而钻探步伐却停滞不前。关于全球石油资源及原油供给有两种观点。悲观一方认为 ,问题不在于世界石油产量是否下滑 ,而是何时这种下滑会预示一个长期性石油危机时代的到来。乐观者则认为 ,世界石油不是正在消耗殆尽 ,而是源源不断地得到供给。本文调查了石油勘探生产能力的形势和美国石油可采储量市场的状况来对这两种截然不同的观点进行评判。美国 5年和 2 0年的经验指标的估计结果可用来衡量美国可采石油储量市场的运作情况。这些指标包括可采储量增加率 (RRA )、储采比(RPR)、储量接替率 (RRR)和总发现量与总储量增加的比率。它们涵盖了美国几个主要产油区原油价格明显变化的不同时期。
Since the late 1970s, the United States has only partially escaped the “reserve danger period,” and the continuous decline in output appears inevitable. The increased reserves are too much dependent on the adjustment of existing oil fields, and the pace of drilling has stagnated. There are two views on global oil resources and crude oil supply. The pessimistic side believes that the question is not whether the world’s oil production will decline, but when this decline will predict the arrival of a long-term oil crisis era. Optimists believe that the world’s oil is not being exhausted, but it is continuously being supplied. This article examines the situation of oil exploration production capacity and the status of the US oil recoverable reserves market to judge these two very different views. The estimated results of the US 5-year and 20-year experience indicators can be used to measure the operation of the US market for recoverable oil reserves. These include RRA, RPR, RRR, and the ratio of total discoveries to total reserves. They cover different periods of significant changes in crude oil prices in several major US oil producing regions.