采用灰色关联度分析法筛选对中国进口俄罗斯木材贸易额影响较大的5个因子,运用影响因子及木材贸易进口额构建BP神经网络模型,利用GM(1,1)模型预测影响因子值,将其代入训练好的BP网络模型中对中国进口俄罗斯木材贸易额进行预测。预测结果表明,中俄木材贸易仍具有良好的发展前景。 Gray relational analysis was used to select five factors which have a great influence on the trade volume of China’s timber imports. The BP neural network model was established by using the influence factors and the trade volume of timber trade. The GM (1,1) model was used to predict the value of the impact factors. It substitutes the trained BP network model to predict the trade volume of China’s imports of Russian timber. The forecast results show that China-Russia timber trade still has good prospects for development.