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本文考察了上游垄断对制造业出口比较优势的影响,理论分析表明上游垄断会通过中间品价格和生产率渠道降低制造业行业出口的比较优势。在此基础上,本文采用中国工业企业数据库、《中国科技统计年鉴》和WIOD数据库的合并数据,以增加值视角测算的行业RCA指数、TC指数和MI指数作为行业出口比较优势的代理变量,实证检验了上游垄断对制造业行业出口比较优势的影响。实证结果表明,上游垄断程度的提高会显著降低制造业行业出口的比较优势;在控制了影响比较优势的其他因素和变量的内生性以及测算误差后,实证结论依然稳健。上游垄断会通过中间品价格和生产率渠道影响行业出口的比较优势。此外,政府补贴会加剧上游垄断的负向影响,而下游行业竞争程度的提高会抑制上游垄断对制造业行业出口比较优势的负向影响。因此,推动上游行业的市场化改革、打破上游市场垄断,对于中国构建外贸竞争新优势和供给侧改革具有重要的政策含义。
This paper examines the influence of upstream monopoly on the comparative advantage of manufacturing exports. Theoretical analysis shows that the upstream monopoly will reduce the comparative advantage of manufacturing industry exports through intermediate product price and productivity channels. On this basis, this article uses the combined data of China Industrial Enterprise Database, China Science and Technology Statistics Yearbook and WIOD database, the industry RCA index, TC index and MI index as the proxy variables for the industry’s comparative advantage in exports as measured by the value-added perspective. Tested the influence of upstream monopoly on the comparative advantage of manufacturing industry export. The empirical results show that the improvement of the upstream monopoly level will significantly reduce the comparative advantage of the manufacturing sector’s exports. After controlling for the other factors affecting the comparative advantages and the endogeneity of the variables as well as the measurement error, the empirical conclusions remain stable. The upstream monopoly will affect the comparative advantage of the export of the industry through the channels of intermediate goods prices and productivity. In addition, government subsidies will exacerbate the negative impact of upstream monopoly, while the increase of competition in downstream industries will restrain the negative influence of upstream monopoly on the comparative advantage of manufacturing industry export. Therefore, pushing forward the marketization reform of upstream industries and breaking the monopoly of the upstream market have important policy implications for China in building its foreign trade competition advantage and supply-side reform.