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本文以统治者统治利润最大化为目标函数,构建基本的王朝兴衰模型,并结合历史史实讨论技术(气候)变迁、制度、人口、耕地面积、军事技术和征税效率等因素对王朝兴衰的影响。研究发现,包括气温上升在内的技术进步对王朝兴衰有着正面影响;军事镇压民众起义的能力越强、征税效率越高、可耕种土地数量越多,王朝越容易兴盛;人口数量对王朝兴衰存在倒U型的影响,即在人口较少时,随着人口数量的增加,王朝越容易出现兴盛,但人口数量超过某个阈值,人口对王朝兴衰的影响转为负面。
This article takes the maximization of rulers’ profits as the objective function and constructs the basic dynastic rise and fall model, and discusses the influence of technology (climate) change, system, population, cultivated area, military technology and tax efficiency on the rise and fall of the dynasty . The study found that technical progress, including rising temperatures, had a positive effect on the rise and fall of the dynasty. The stronger the ability of the military to suppress the popular uprising and the higher the tax efficiency, the more land can be cultivated. The more prosperous the dynasty, the more prosperous the dynasty There is an inverted U-shaped effect. That is, when the population is small, the dynastic tends to flourish as the population increases. However, the population exceeds a certain threshold, and the population’s influence on the rise and decline of the dynasty turns negative.