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采用我国48个老工业基地37个工业行业2006—2012年的数据,核算其碳排放量及变化趋势,并运用LMDI方法从区域和行业两个层面分析碳排放的影响因素,研究发现:老工业基地能源消费还是以煤炭消费为主;从地区层面看,行业规模和能源结构是影响碳排放的主要拉动因素,行业结构和行业能源强度是影响碳排放的重要制约因素;从行业层面看,行业规模对37个行业的碳排放均表现出拉动作用,能源强度对7个行业的碳排放起到拉动作用,能源结构对28个行业的碳排放量具有拉动作用。应适度控制工业行业规模,优化行业结构及能源消费结构,加快技术进步。
Based on the data of 37 industrial sectors in 48 old industrial bases of China from 2006 to 2012, the carbon emissions and the change trend were calculated. The influencing factors of carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI from both the regional and industry levels. The results showed that old industry At the regional level, the industry scale and energy structure are the major driving factors that affect carbon emissions. The industrial structure and energy intensity of the industry are the major constraints on carbon emissions. From an industrial perspective, the industry Scale of carbon emissions in 37 industries have shown a pull, energy intensity of carbon emissions in seven industries have played a leading role, the energy structure of 28 industries have a pulling effect on carbon emissions. The scale of the industrial sector should be moderately controlled, the industrial structure and energy consumption structure should be optimized, and technological progress should be accelerated.