Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SAR

来源 :浙江大学学报(英文版)(B辑:生物医学和生物技术) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:jack196409
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
With the number of cases of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) increasing rapidly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that patients with mild or moderate symptoms could be released from quarantine without nucleic acid retesting, and self-isolate in the community. This may pose a potential virus transmission risk. We aimed to develop a nomo-gram to predict the duration of viral shedding for individual COVID-19 patients. This retrospective multicentric study enrolled 135 patients as a training cohort and 102 patients as a validation cohort. Significant factors associated with the duration of viral shed-ding were identified by multivariate Cox modeling in the training cohort and combined to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of viral shedding at 9, 13, 17, and 21 d after admission. The nomogram was validated in the validation cohort and evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve. A higher absolute lymphocyte count (P=0.001) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (P=0.013) were correlated with a shorter duration of viral shedding, while a longer activated partial thromboplastin time (P=0.007) prolonged the viral shedding duration. The C-indices of the nomogram were 0.732 (95%confidence interval (CI):0.685?0.777) in the training cohort and 0.703 (95%CI:0.642?0.764) in the validation cohort. The AUC showed a good discriminative ability (training cohort:0.879, 0.762, 0.738, and 0.715 for 9, 13, 17, and 21 d;vali-dation cohort:0.855, 0.758, 0.728, and 0.706 for 9, 13, 17, and 21 d), and calibration curves were consistent between outcomes and predictions in both cohorts. A predictive nomogram for viral shedding duration based on three easily accessible factors was developed to help estimate appropriate self-isolation time for patients with mild or moderate symptoms, and to control virus transmission.
其他文献
道路照明作为城市主要的基础设施之一,电气设计可以优化市容市貌,提高人们的生活质量。现阶段,我国的城市道路照明电气设计已十分成熟,但在具体的设计工作中依然存在部分问题。基于此,文章从城市道路照明电气设计中存在的电缆选择、电路短路、相互分离、路灯眩光、能源浪费问题进行分析,提出具体的优化策略,提高城市道路照明电气设计水平。
本文对行政法规在弄事审判中的适用进行了探讨。 This article discusses the application of administrative rules and regulations in trial.
期刊
  住房体制改革十余年来,中国城市在大力培育和发展住房市场、鼓励市民通过市场渠道改善居住条件的同时,逐步将保障性住房体系作为改善民生的重点。文章系统地回顾了中国住房
会议
应急预案在地铁安全管理与应急救援过程中占据重要的作用,由于应急预案的文本特性,当前地铁中应急预案的实用性与现场可操作性备受关注。文章基于现场应急流程,进行预案的流程结构研究和图形化编辑研究,实现文本预案的结构化与程序化,使其内容直观、具备可操作性。在此基础上,运用范例推演和规则推演(CBR+RBR)的理论方法,对现场预警信息进行要素匹配,实现结构化预案指令的智能推送,联动应急救援的各方力量,辅助现场指挥。文章通过预案的结构化研究,建立预警应急联动系统,解决文本预案现场操作性问题,进一步提高现场应急联动能力
  论文首先回顾了十多年来杭州市保障性安居工程建设在宜居城市与和谐社会构建过程中明显缓解住房困难、较好改善人居环境、大幅提升城市品质、显著增强城市竞争能力等主要
会议
节段预制拼装连续刚构桥的特点在于可实现快速施工、对环境的影响较小、成型时间短且使用周期较长等,被广泛应用于当前的工程项目中.文章结合工程案例,介绍工程的特点以及节
  本文列举国际类似港湾开发案例,藉由计划与方法的分析探讨,论述"亚洲新湾区"发展计划的价值与隐忧,型塑高雄港湾城市下一个百年荣景。
  "十二五"期间,我国将大规模推进保障性住房建设,这为节能省地技术的发展提供了机遇,也提出了挑战。本文针对保障性住房的特点,分别提出上海市保障性住房适用的节能和省地关键
中广核汕尾后湖海上风电项目位于无掩护外海水域,受大风、涌浪等自然环境影响较大,可作业时间少,海况条件复杂,本项目需要解决在复杂海域条件下海上升压站基础导管架起吊安放
结合斜井冻结施工经验,为降低斜井冻结段施工难度,将分次爆破应用于斜井冻结段施工中,对分次爆破在施工工序中的技术要点进行总结,并对施工过程中需要特别注意的环节进行归纳