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目的分析钉螺面积与人、畜感染数量的空间回归关系,了解洞庭湖区各县、区钉螺对血吸虫病人、畜感染的影响程度及影响范围,指导湖区血吸虫病的防治工作。方法利用ArcGIS10空间关系模块中的普通最小二乘法回归模型、地理加权回归模型对人、畜感染进行建模。结果钉螺面积对人、畜感染影响程度较大,每增加一单位的钉螺面积会相应增加0.153487个感染病人和0.003838头病牛;钉螺面积对人、畜感染存在空间异质性的正相关。结论空间回归分析可以较好地用于洞庭湖区钉螺面积与血吸虫人畜感染的关系研究,且地理加权回归模型对这种异质性的模拟较普通最小二乘法回归模型更加优越。
Objective To analyze the spatial regression relationship between snail area and the number of human and livestock infections and to understand the influence degree and influence scope of snail snails on schistosomiasis patients infected by schistosomiasis in counties and districts in Dongting Lake area and to guide the prevention and control of schistosomiasis in the lake area. Methods Ordinary least squares regression model in ArcGIS 10 spatial relation module was used to model human and livestock infections. Results The snail area had a greater impact on human and livestock infections, with a corresponding increase of 0.153487 infected and 0.003838 head of cattle for each increment of snail area. There was a positive correlation between snail area and spatial heterogeneity of human and livestock infections. Conclusion Spatial regression analysis can be used to study the relationship between snail area and infection of schistosomiasis in the area of Dongting Lake, and the geographical weighted regression model is more superior to the general least squares regression model for the simulation of this heterogeneity.