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进口替代作为重要的工业化发展战略,有其内在的逻辑基础和重要的实践价值。俄罗斯的进口替代从自发进程到政策实践,是经济危机和内外压力共同作用的结果。从性质和内容看,俄罗斯当前的进口替代是国家安全战略和结构发展战略的综合,其根本目的是在反危机过程中逐步解决经济发展中的深层次结构性矛盾。在WTO框架和经济全球化条件下,贸易保护和复汇率制等传统进口替代政策工具已经失效,但一定时期的卢布汇率贬值和制造业劳动生产率的逐渐提升依然能够满足进口替代的必要条件。本文认为,俄罗斯进口替代战略的政策逻辑具有合理性。
Import substitution, as an important industrialization development strategy, has its inherent logical basis and important practical value. Russia’s import substitution from spontaneous progress to policy practice is the result of the combined effect of the economic crisis and internal and external pressures. In terms of nature and content, Russia’s current import substitution is a synthesis of national security strategies and structural development strategies. Its fundamental purpose is to gradually solve deep-seated structural contradictions in economic development during the process of anti-crisis. Under the WTO framework and economic globalization, traditional import substitution policy tools such as trade protection and exchange rate recovery have lapsed, but the devaluation of the ruble exchange rate and gradual improvement of manufacturing labor productivity in a certain period can still meet the import substitution requirements. This paper argues that the policy logic of Russia’s import substitution strategy is reasonable.